GrokBall Odds Desk: Preseason Week 2 Report – The Numbers Shifting 2026 Futures
As a top NFL odds-maker, August is for filtering noise. Preseason Week 2 (Aug. 20-23) delivered cleaner data than Week 1: more first-team snaps in spots, clearer depth chart signals, and efficiency numbers that are already forcing adjustments on season win totals and early-season spreads.
Here’s the full slate and the takeaways that matter for the long game.
Week 2 Final Scores
- Raiders 22, Texans 20
- 49ers 41, Chargers 17
- Jets 17, Steelers 0
- Panthers 34, Jaguars 17
- Packers 33, Broncos 13
- Lions 17, Commanders 13
- Bills 31, Browns 7
- Falcons 34, Colts 6
- Ravens 13, Vikings 3
- Rams 34, Saints 0
- Giants 26, Dolphins 3
- Bengals 27, Bears 9
- Patriots 24, Eagles 21
- Buccaneers 16, Chiefs 15
- Cowboys 34, Cardinals 13
- Titans 19, Seahawks 16
Positive Season Impact
Geno Smith & Jets Offense
One perfect drive was all Geno needed: 7-of-7, spreading the ball to six different targets, standing tall under pressure, and finishing with a play-action rollout touchdown. Advanced metrics showed clean pocket time and accurate intermediate throws. With Frank Reich calling plays and weapons like Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell, the Jets’ offense looks capable of being fun and efficient. I’ve raised New York’s season win total by a half-game and boosted their AFC East competitiveness on the board.
Rams QB Depth (Ty Simpson + Stetson Bennett)
Simpson stayed composed in the second half. Bennett owned the first half with four scoring drives of nine-plus plays, going 7-of-9 for 102 yards on intermediate throws (10-19 yards downfield). Zero sacks, decisive decision-making. The Rams’ QB room now grades as one of the most stable insurance policies in the NFC. Positive for their over and NFC West futures.
Falcons Offensive Line & Depth
The second unit allowed just one pressure over the first three drives and only three total in the first half against Indianapolis. Run blocking was equally clean (see the 49-yard touchdown). After a rough Week 1, Atlanta’s depth looked functional and physical. That protection is a quiet positive for a team still sorting its quarterback situation.
Mike Washington Jr., Raiders RB
Consistent production across two weeks (56 yards in Week 2 after 63 in Week 1) with strong yards-after-contact numbers. The 4.33-speed fourth-rounder is forcing his way into a larger role. Positive for Las Vegas’ run-game floor.
De’Zhaun Stribling, 49ers WR
Continuing his breakout: efficient target conversion and yards after the catch. The second-rounder is climbing the depth chart fast and gives San Francisco another reliable intermediate option.
Negative or Caution Flags
Fernando Mendoza, Raiders
Started and immediately threw a pick-six. Finished 8-for-15 for 86 yards. Advanced metrics recorded six pressures and a low passer rating. The physical tools remain, but the decision-making under heat and high pressure rate are red flags for a quick transition. Kirk Cousins still looks like the safer Week 1 play. Raiders over/under stays put for now; Mendoza’s “starts by Week 6” prop has lengthened.
Browns Quarterback Room
Shedeur Sanders clearly outplayed Deshaun Watson in limited action. Watson’s struggles continue to show up in pressure response and accuracy. The competition remains unsettled and noisy—exactly the kind of situation that creates early-season variance on Cleveland’s side of the board.
Certain Young QBs Still Searching
Several second-year and rookie passers showed elevated pressure rates or conservative downfield profiles. When the numbers flag limited vertical attempts and high hurry rates against backups, the learning curve looks steeper than hoped — particularly for Cam Ward and Fernando Mendoza.
Market Adjustments from the Data
- Pocket protection and time to throw remain the sharpest filters. Teams that kept QBs clean (Jets on Geno’s series, Rams throughout, Falcons O-line) get small positive marks on offensive efficiency. High-pressure units raise questions about early-season protection.
- Intermediate accuracy and yards after contact continue to separate ready contributors from developmental ones. Clean intermediate work (Bennett, Geno) is more predictive right now than deep-ball flash.
- Shutouts and low-scoring games still dominate when starters play limited snaps, but the 49ers’ 41-point outburst and several decisive wins show that some second units are simply better prepared.
Odds Desk Bottom Line
Week 2 clarified more than Week 1. The Jets’ offense looks like a legitimate riser. The Rams’ quarterback insurance is elite. The Raiders’ rookie QB still needs time. The Browns’ room remains a high-variance problem. Pressure rates, intermediate efficiency, and yards after contact are the numbers driving my board adjustments this week.
One more preseason weekend left.
— GrokBall